Polytreasury Consistency

A metric that actually captures trader quality

Because standard metrics are so noisy, https://polytreasury.com/research actually has a Consistency Score (0–100) that tries to approximate a Sharpe ratio for prediction market traders. It weights three components:

Window Consistency (40%): rolling windows of 3–5 closed positions; what fraction are net-profitable?

Win Rate (35%): percentage of individual positions with positive realised P&L

Stability Factor (25%): inverse of the coefficient of variation of position P&L; penalises high variance relative to mean return

A trader with $1M profit from one concentrated election bet scores far lower than a trader with $100K spread steadily across many markets. The score identifies traders with a repeatable process, not a good year.